NYISO Forecasts Adequate Electric Capacity for Winter 2013-2014 Peak Demand

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New York Seasonal Peaks 2000 to 2013

RENSSELAER, NY (12/12/2013)(readMedia)-- The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) forecasts the peak demand for electricity in New York state will reach 24,709 megawatts (MW) during the 2013-2014 winter season. This forecast is 123 MW (0.5 percent) lower than the forecast of 24,832 MW for last winter and 3.3 percent lower than New York state's record winter peak of 25,541 MW, which occurred on December 20, 2004.

Generation capacity for winter 2013?2014 is 40,196 MW and net external capacity purchases of 1,063 MW have been secured for the winter period. The combined capacity resources represent a 67 percent margin above the forecast peak demand of 24,709 MW.

The NYISO prepares estimates of peak demand as part of its comprehensive planning for New York state's electric system, which supports the reliable operation of the bulk electricity grid and the effective management of the wholesale electricity markets.

Reliability Requirements

The electric system needs surplus power supplies to guarantee that sufficient electricity is available in the event of unanticipated power plant outages, transmission outages or unexpected increases in power consumption.

The Installed Capacity (ICAP) requirement for the winter operating period is 28,910 MW, based on a 17 percent Installed Reserve Margin (IRM), established by the New York State Reliability Council (NYSRC), a not-for-profit entity that develops and monitors compliance with reliability rules specifically established for New York state's electric system. Those rules include the IRM, which the NYSRC annually establishes with approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the New York State Public Service Commission (PSC). The IRM represents the percentage of capacity (over 100 percent of capacity needed to serve forecasted peak) required to be available for the bulk power system to operate reliably in the event generators or transmis¬sion facilities are forced out of service.

Natural Gas and Electric System Reliability

Grid operators and electric system planners are paying increased attention to natural gas as its use in electric generation expands. In addition to its use as a fuel for power plants, natural gas is widely relied upon as a heating fuel throughout New York and the northeastern United States. As a result, the gas-electric coordination requires particular attention during the winter heating season.

Disruptions in the supply or delivery of natural gas can affect the ability of gas-fueled generation to provide power, which could impact electric system reliability. In New York state, natural gas supplies 55 percent of New York's generating capacity. However, 47 percent of that generating capacity is from "dual-fuel" units capable of using gas or oil to produce power. This fuel-switching capability helps to mitigate the impact of fuel supply disruptions. The NYISO also has control room procedures, including procedures for extreme cold weather events, to respond to potential gas system disruptions.

The NYISO established an Electric and Gas Coordination Working Group in January 2012 to address joint operational, planning and market design issues relating to the electric system's expanding use of natural gas.

Winter Peaks vs. Summer Peaks

New York's electricity system experiences it greatest demand during summer months due in large part to the power demands of air conditioning and cooling systems. According to the United States Energy Information Administration, less than 10 percent of New York households rely on electricity as the main source of home heating, while more than 70 percent use air conditioning. This summer, demand for electricity in New York state from a weeklong heat wave produced a new record peak load of 33,956 MW.

A megawatt (MW) is a measure of electricity equal to 1 million watts. One megawatt is roughly the amount of electricity required to supply 800 to 1,000 homes.