NYISO Report on Grid Reliability Finds Future NYC Deficiency, Increasing Statewide Concerns

RENSSELAER, NY (11/21/2024) (readMedia)-- The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) today released its 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA), which identifies a violation of reliability criteria in New York City in 2033 and highlights growing risks to electric system reliability statewide.

The RNA, issued biennially, evaluates the future reliability of the New York electric grid considering forecasts of power demand, planned upgrades to the transmission system, public policy and changes to the generation mix over a ten-year period.

The RNA notes several factors contributing to projected increases in peak demand over the study horizon, including electrification of the transportation and building sectors and large, energy-intensive commercial projects that include data centers and chip fabrication.

Additionally, state legislation enacted in 2023 requires the New York Power Authority (NYPA) to deactivate its small natural gas plants located in New York City and Long Island. These retirements would result in a loss of 517 megawatts (MW). The new law authorizes NYPA to confer with the NYISO to determine if the plants are necessary for electric system reliability.

According to the findings of the RNA, the identified New York City reliability need is 17 MW in summer 2033 and increases to 97 MW in summer 2034.

The potential risks and resource needs identified in the RNA may be resolved by new capacity resources coming into service, construction of additional transmission facilities, increased energy efficiency, integration of distributed energy resources and/or growth in demand response participation.

"Our latest report demonstrates the continued importance of the NYISO's in-depth planning process and the need to closely monitor the rapidly changing electric grid," said Zach Smith, Senior Vice President, System and Resource Planning. "In this RNA, we highlight several risk factors that could adversely affect system reliability in the months and years ahead."

The plan also underscores the importance of the timely completion of planned transmission projects – primarily the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) project – to maintain system reliability. Without the CHPE project in service by May 2026 or other offsetting solutions, reliability margins within New York City may be deficient beginning in 2026.

The forecasted transition from a summer-peaking system to a winter-peaking system also poses challenges to grid reliability, the RNA finds. This shift, driven by the electrification of the building and transportation sectors, is expected to accelerate over the next ten years. Increased winter demand introduces new reliability concerns, particularly around fuel availability for gas-fired generators. On the coldest days, natural gas distribution companies prioritize residential heating and limit the fuel available to generators without firm contracts. These coldest days also correspond to peak winter demand periods when the gas fleet is needed most.

Given the rapid pace of change on the bulk electric system, the NYISO will continue to monitor these and other developments to determine whether changing system resources and conditions could impact the reliability of the New York electric grid.

Read the NYISO's 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment

About the New York ISO

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is a not-for-profit corporation responsible for operating the bulk electricity grid, administering the competitive wholesale electricity markets, conducting comprehensive long-term planning, and advancing the technological infrastructure of the electric system serving the Empire State.