NYISO Study Finds "Reliability Need" in 2025 for New York City Region

Reliability margin deficit as large as 446 MW

RENSSELAER, NY (07/14/2023) (readMedia)-- The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) today released its quarterly assessment of reliability of the bulk electric system, which found a deficit in reliability margins for the New York City area beginning in summer 2025. The deficit is as large as 446 MW, driven primarily by the combination of a forecasted increase in peak demand and the unavailability of certain generators.

The NYISO's Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) studied electric system reliability for the period April 15, 2023, through April 15, 2028. Factors driving New York City's reliability need in 2025 include increased electrification of the transportation and building sectors, continued economic growth following the pandemic, and the unavailability or retirement of select generators under the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation's emissions limits. That rule went into effect May 2023.

The reliability need is based on a deficiency in transmission security. Transmission security analysis tests the ability of the power system to withstand disturbances, such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of a generator or a transmission line, while continuing to supply and deliver electricity. The NYISO first identified rapidly declining reliability margins in its 2021 Comprehensive Reliability Plan and restated those concerns in its 2022 Reliability Needs Assessment.

Reliability rules that determine the acceptable levels of transmission security are determined by several entities that are responsible for overseeing the reliability of the bulk electric system, including the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, the Northeast Power Coordinating Council, the New York State Reliability Council and the New York State Public Service Commission.

"This new STAR report reflects the extraordinary challenges of the grid in transition," said Zach Smith, NYISO's Vice President of System and Resource Planning. "The reliability of the electric system is essential to the health and safety for all New Yorkers as well as the state's economy. The NYISO will now work to identify solutions to the reliability need identified in New York City."

Per the NYISO's tariff, overseen by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the finding of a reliability need initiates a process administered by the NYISO to bring reliability margins back to acceptable operating levels. The NYISO will begin the process immediately by working with the local utility and the marketplace to identify and evaluate possible solutions.

Beyond 2025, the STAR report found that New York City's reliability margin would improve when the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) transmission line from Quebec to New York City is completed. CHPE is expected to enter service in the spring of 2026. The STAR report found that delays in CHPE's schedule could result in additional transmission security concerns. The NYISO will continue to monitor closely the development of CHPE.

View the complete Quarter 2 Short-Term Assessment of Reliability here.

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About the New York ISO

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is a not-for-profit corporation responsible for operating the state's bulk electricity grid, administering New York's competitive wholesale electricity markets, conducting comprehensive long-term planning for the state's electric power system, and advancing the technological infrastructure of the electric system serving the Empire State.